Player Predictions for Rangers vs Athletics – September 26, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers prepare to face off on September 26, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum, both teams find themselves out of contention in the American League West. The Athletics are enduring a tough season with a 68-90 record, while the Rangers are slightly better at 75-83, though still below average. In their last meeting on September 25, the Rangers secured a 5-1 victory over the Athletics, continuing their modest success in this series.

The Athletics will send J.T. Ginn to the mound, who has had a challenging season with a 4.40 ERA but has shown signs of potential with a better xFIP of 3.70. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may perform better moving forward. Ginn is expected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs on average, which is considered good. However, he may struggle with control, as he projects to allow 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Kumar Rocker, who has impressed with an excellent 2.57 ERA but is projected to regress due to a higher xFIP of 4.04. Rocker is a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 35.3% strikeout rate, which could be advantageous against the Athletics’ offense, ranked 5th in strikeouts. However, Rocker’s innings are limited, with an average projection of 4.6 innings, and he could face challenges with control, allowing 3.8 hits and 1.3 walks.

Offensively, the Athletics have shown power, ranking 8th in home runs, led by Brent Rooker with 38 homers this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 25th overall in offense. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Athletics a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting that despite the Athletics’ poor record, they have a chance to turn things around in this matchup. With the game total set at 7.5 runs, expect a low-scoring affair between these two teams.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-105)
  The Texas Rangers outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Oakland’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Marcus Semien, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The 7.4% Barrel% of the Texas Rangers grades them out as the #22 squad in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Because flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, J.T. Ginn (49.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 3 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Seth Brown has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Brent Rooker projects as the 19th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (-115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 72 games (+11.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+17.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Zack Gelof has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)