Player Predictions for Padres vs Cubs – April 5, 2025

San Diego Padres

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the San Diego Padres on April 5, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong starts to the season. The Cubs sit at 6-4, while the Padres boast an impressive 7-1 record. This matchup not only features two teams in good form, but also showcases a clash between the 15th and 9th best offenses in MLB, according to current projections.

In their previous game, the Padres delivered a dominant performance, further solidifying their status as a contender this season. With the Cubs looking to bounce back from yesterday’s loss, the stakes are high at Wrigley Field as they aim to even the series.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Matthew Boyd, who has yet to allow any earned runs this season with a stellar ERA of 0.00. However, his xFIP of 4.92 suggests that he might not sustain this level of performance moving forward. Boyd’s ability to limit runs could be tested by a Padres offense that ranks 5th in batting average and 3rd in stolen bases, though they struggle with power, sitting at 33rd in home runs.

Opposing him, Nick Pivetta takes the hill for the Padres. With a current ERA of 0.00 and a solid win/loss record of 1-0, Pivetta has also been fortunate, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.09. He excels at inducing ground balls, which could be crucial against a Cubs lineup that ranks 1st in strikeouts but possesses significant pop with 14 home runs this season.

Betting markets indicate a close game, with the Cubs holding a moneyline of -120 and a projected team total of just 3.58 runs. Given the pitching matchup and the Cubs’ overall offensive struggles, they may need to overperform to secure a victory against the well-rounded Padres.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jake Cronenworth may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  The San Diego Padres have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ian Happ has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games at home (+13.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 98 games (+17.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.60 Units / 26% ROI)