New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-145
As the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets gear up for their National League Wild Card matchup on October 1, 2024, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Brewers, hosting at American Family Field, come into this game as the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 57% and a moneyline of -145. The Brewers dropped their last game to the Mets on September 29, falling 5-0, but still hold the edge in this pivotal clash.
The Brewers will rely on Freddy Peralta, who ranks as the 29th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Peralta sports a solid 3.68 ERA this season, and his projection suggests he will pitch five innings with 1.9 earned runs, while striking out 6.4 batters on average, indicating a strong performance. However, he is known for allowing flyballs, which could be a concern against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 6th in home runs.
On the mound for the Mets, Luis Severino brings a 3.91 ERA and is considered an average pitcher by advanced metrics. His projections show a shorter outing of 4.6 innings, with an average of 2.2 earned runs allowed. While Severino’s numbers indicate a challenging start, the Mets’ offense, ranked 9th overall, could provide the necessary support.
Offensively, the Brewers have the 10th-best lineup, with standout performances in batting average and stolen bases. Willy Adames has been their most reliable hitter throughout the season, while Jake Bauers has been hot over the last week. For the Mets, Francisco Lindor leads the charge, showing impressive form recently with 2 home runs and a .353 batting average over the past week.
The Brewers’ bullpen, ranked 13th, slightly edges the Mets’ 17th-ranked bullpen, which could be pivotal in a tight contest. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, expect a closely fought game, where strong pitching and timely hitting will be key to advancing in the postseason.
New York Mets Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)Luis Severino’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 88th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)In terms of his home runs, Mark Vientos has been very fortunate this year. His 36.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.8.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- New York Mets bats as a unit rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (5th-) when assessing their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Jackson Chourio has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 159 games (+8.65 Units / 4% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 93 games (+14.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 29% ROI)