Player Predictions for Dodgers vs Mets – October 16, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to clash in Game 3 of their National League Championship Series matchup on October 16, 2024, the stakes are high, with the series tied at 1-1. The Mets, fresh off a commanding 7-3 victory over the Dodgers on October 14, are looking to build on their momentum at Citi Field. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, determined to bounce back, aim to leverage their impressive regular-season performance that saw them boast the 1st-ranked offense in MLB.

On the mound, the Mets will start Luis Severino, whose solid season is highlighted by an 11-7 record and a respectable 3.91 ERA over 31 starts. Despite being average in the advanced-stat Power Rankings at #115, Severino’s recent performances suggest stability, though he projects to allow 2.2 earned runs and strike out 4.4 batters on average today, both of which are below his season norms.

The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler, who has had a challenging season with a 1-6 record and a 5.38 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.49 indicates some misfortune this season, suggesting potential for better outings. Despite this, projections have Buehler allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out just 3.6 batters, which could spell trouble against the Mets’ 9th-ranked offense, particularly given their power, ranking 4th in home runs.

The Dodgers’ offensive firepower, led by Shohei Ohtani, is a significant threat, as they top the league in both overall offense and home runs. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 55% win probability, suggesting a slight edge over the Mets. Betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, with the Dodgers projected to score 4.57 runs on average, there might be value in siding with Los Angeles as they seek to regain control of the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average hurler, Walker Buehler has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -7.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Brandon Nimmo has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Dodgers has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The New York Mets (23.9% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 107 games (+21.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 97 games (+22.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+12.45 Units / 20% ROI)