St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-120/+100)-175
The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 5, 2025, in a matchup that carries significant implications as both teams look to solidify their positions. The Dodgers currently hold a strong record of 65-48, showcasing their status as one of the league’s top contenders, while the Cardinals sit at a more average 57-57.
In their last game, the Dodgers secured a victory against the Cardinals, continuing a trend of solid performances. The Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their impressive total of 165 home runs this season. This firepower could be particularly advantageous against Cardinals pitcher Miles Mikolas, who has struggled this year and is ranked among the worst in the league. Mikolas, a high-flyball pitcher with a 40% flyball rate, will need to navigate a potent Dodgers lineup that thrives on power.
On the mound for the Dodgers will be Emmet Sheehan, who has shown promise despite a 2-2 record and a 3.60 ERA this season. His advanced rankings place him as the 52nd best starting pitcher, indicating he is a solid option, even as projections suggest he could face challenges today. Sheehan is projected to pitch 4.5 innings while allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, which is fairly average.
The Dodgers’ bullpen also ranks 6th in MLB, providing further support should Sheehan encounter trouble. In contrast, the Cardinals’ bullpen is ranked 12th, which is average, reflecting a potential edge for the Dodgers in late-game scenarios.
With a high game total of 9.0 runs, the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -185, indicating strong confidence in their ability to capitalize on their offensive advantages. With the stakes high, the Dodgers will look to continue their momentum against a Cardinals team that will need a strong outing from Mikolas to keep pace.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Miles Mikolas has used his off-speed and breaking balls 6.2% more often this season (55.2%) than he did last season (49%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Emmet Sheehan.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Out of all starting pitchers, Emmet Sheehan’s fastball spin rate of 2436 rpm grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Dalton Rushing – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Dalton Rushing has strong power (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas is a pitch-to-contact type (16th percentile K%) — great news for Rushing.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-175)The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 away games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)