Player Predictions for Braves vs Guardians – August 16, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on August 16, 2025, they find themselves in the midst of a crucial interleague series. The Guardians, sitting at 63-58, are having an above-average season and are looking to build on their recent momentum. In contrast, the Braves, with a record of 54-68, have struggled this year and are not currently contending for a playoff spot.

In their previous matchup yesterday, the Guardians managed to secure a victory against the Braves, adding to their confidence heading into this game. Slade Cecconi is projected to take the mound for the Guardians, boasting a Win/Loss record of 5-5 and an ERA of 4.11, which is above average. However, underlying metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this season, as his xERA stands at 5.47, indicating potential regression. Cecconi’s control has been solid, with a low walk rate of 6.7%, which could be advantageous against a Braves lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in walks.

On the other side, Joey Wentz will start for the Braves. Wentz has had a rough year, with a 3-3 record and a 5.03 ERA. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may be due for some positive regression, as his xERA of 4.17 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Wentz’s performance has been erratic, and he will need to limit hard contact to give the Braves a chance.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 27th in MLB, which is troubling, while the Braves sit in the middle of the pack at 15th. The Guardians have a high implied team total of 4.30 runs, while the Braves are projected at 4.20 runs, reflecting the close nature of this matchup. With both teams looking to capitalize on the other’s weaknesses, this game promises to be tightly contested.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Joey Wentz will be at an advantage going up against 7 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Marcell Ozuna has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.2% seasonal rate to 30.4% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Gabriel Arias has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 43% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.45 Units / 75% ROI)