Player Predictions for Astros vs Phillies – August 26, 2024

Houston Astros

@

Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros on August 26, 2024, both teams are looking to bolster their postseason aspirations. The Phillies currently hold a robust 76-54 record, positioning them solidly for a playoff run, while the Astros sit at 70-60, trying to maintain their footing in the Wild Card race.

In their last outings, the Phillies showcased their offensive prowess with an impressive 11-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals, while the Astros secured a 6-3 win against the Baltimore Orioles. This matchup is particularly intriguing as the Phillies are projected to start Zack Wheeler, who ranks as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Wheeler has been exceptional this season with a 2.73 ERA and a solid 12-6 record over 25 starts. His last appearance on August 20 was a strong one, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters.

On the other side, the Astros will send Ronel Blanco to the mound. Although he has a decent 3.14 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been fortunate this season, as indicated by his 4.15 xFIP. Blanco struggled in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs in just 4 innings.

The Phillies’ offense ranks 7th overall in MLB, with a strong team batting average that places them 3rd. They have also hit 124 home runs this season, ranking 6th in the league. This power could be pivotal against Blanco, who is known for allowing fly balls. Meanwhile, the projections suggest the Phillies are likely to score around 5.22 runs in this game, reinforcing their status as significant favorites with a moneyline of -185. With the Astros projected for just 3.66 runs, this matchup leans heavily in favor of Philadelphia, making them an appealing option for bettors looking for value.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Ronel Blanco’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (92.7 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)
  Zack Wheeler has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+12.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 124 games (+14.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Austin Hays has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.70 Units / 30% ROI)