Player Insights for Royals vs Phillies – 9/14/25

Kansas City Royals

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Kansas City Royals for the third game of their series on September 14, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. The previous game saw the Phillies emerge victorious with an 8-6 win, leaving them with a strong 89-60 record this season, while the Royals sit at a more average 74-75. With their impressive record, the Phillies are firmly in contention and boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, while the Royals struggle at 26th.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Aaron Nola, who, despite a disappointing 4-8 record and a troubling 6.24 ERA, showed signs of improvement in his last start, pitching 6 innings with no earned runs. His 3.79 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky this season. Nola’s average projected performance of 5.9 innings and 3.0 earned runs suggests he could deliver a solid outing against a Royals lineup that ranks low in power.

Noah Cameron, the Royals’ projected starter, has performed better with a 7-7 record and a stellar 3.00 ERA. However, his underlying metrics are less favorable, with a 4.22 xFIP suggesting potential regression. Cameron’s average projected performance of 4.7 innings and 2.8 earned runs coupled with high walk rates could open the door for the Phillies’ potent lineup, especially with their 2nd best team batting average in MLB.

The betting lines favor the Phillies with a moneyline of -155, reflecting their strong standing and superior offense against a Royals team that has struggled to keep pace this season. With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, the stage is set for the Phillies to build on their recent success and capitalize against a Royals team that has shown inconsistency.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Noah Cameron’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (72.5% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 8th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Aaron Nola’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph decline from last season’s 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Kyle Schwarber has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.6-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 94.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 113 games (+14.76 Units / 11% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 134 games (+25.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+6.15 Units / 106% ROI)