Player Insights for Royals vs Orioles – 10/02/24

Kansas City Royals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the American League Wild Card series heats up, the Baltimore Orioles look to even the score against the Kansas City Royals after a narrow 1-0 loss on October 1. Both teams are vying for postseason positioning, and the Orioles, playing at home in Oriole Park at Camden Yards, are slight favorites with a moneyline of -140. Meanwhile, the Royals are coming in as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, having already taken the first game of this pivotal series.

On the mound, the Orioles will start Zach Eflin, who is ranked as the 34th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Eflin enters the game with a 10-9 Win/Loss record and a respectable 3.59 ERA. Despite his low-strikeout rate, Eflin has shown great control, issuing very few walks. However, he’s up against a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in fewest strikeouts and 3rd in fewest walks, which might negate some of his strengths.

Opposing him is Seth Lugo for the Royals, ranked 66th among starting pitchers, with an impressive 16-9 Win/Loss record and an excellent 3.00 ERA. Lugo’s success this season is tempered by a 3.83 xFIP, indicating he might have been lucky. The projections suggest he could allow more runs than his ERA indicates, which could work in Baltimore’s favor.

The Orioles boast an offensive edge, ranking 5th in overall scoring and 2nd in home runs according to Power Rankings, compared to the Royals’ 14th-best offense. Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson has been their standout player this season, while over the last week, Emmanuel Rivera has been on a tear, sporting a .556 batting average and a 1.879 OPS.

With the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, giving the Orioles a 59% chance to win, Baltimore seems poised to bounce back. The Royals, however, armed with confidence from their previous victory and steady pitching from Lugo, will not make it easy. With both teams having capable bullpens (Orioles ranked 12th and Royals 10th), this game could be another tightly contested affair, making for an intriguing Wild Card matchup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Compared to the average hurler, Seth Lugo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 5.7 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+120)
  The 3rd-worst projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Kansas City Royals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Zach Eflin has gone to his curveball 8.5% less often this year (18%) than he did last year (26.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles batters as a group have been among the best in the majors this year (3rd-) when it comes to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 123 games (+16.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 95 games (+11.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 28 games (+13.30 Units / 47% ROI)