Player Insights for Rangers vs Orioles – 3/30/26

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jack Leiter to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Joc Pederson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today’s game… and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+245/-340)
  Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Chris Bassitt has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up an 8.77 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.09 — a 0.68 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under Stolen Bases
  Adley Rutschman has averaged 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.