Player Insights for Phillies vs Cardinals – 4/11/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on April 11, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Cardinals, sitting at 5-7, are struggling this season and recently lost their last matchup by a narrow 2-1 margin. Meanwhile, the Phillies, riding a strong start at 8-4, are coming off a defeat themselves, having lost 4-2 in their most recent game.

St. Louis will look to Andre Pallante to turn things around on the mound. The right-hander boasts a 1-0 record this season with an ERA of 3.86, indicating he has been effective, especially given his xFIP of 3.31, which suggests he may have been a bit unlucky. Pallante is projected to pitch about 5.5 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs. However, his high walk rate of 12.2% could be a concern against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks.

On the other side, Philadelphia will send ace Aaron Nola to the hill. Despite his pedigree, Nola has struggled this season, holding an 0-2 record with a troubling 6.35 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.57 indicates he might be better than his numbers suggest, and he’s projected to pitch around 6.1 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 4th in overall team offense and 2nd in batting average, showcasing their potential to score runs. In contrast, the Phillies are 5th in MLB in terms of offense, providing a balanced matchup.

Given the current odds and projections, the Cardinals have a reasonable chance of outperforming their implied team total of 3.71 runs, particularly with their strong lineup facing a struggling Nola. This matchup promises to be a closely contested game, as both teams seek to bounce back from recent losses.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  In terms of his home runs, Bryce Harper has been lucky since the start of last season. His 28.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies bats as a unit rank among the elite in MLB since the start of last season (2nd- overall) in regard to their 98.2-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their highest exit velocity balls.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Andre Pallante will ring up an average of 16.7 outs today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Jordan Walker has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.85 Units / 117% ROI)