Player Insights for Orioles vs Dodgers – 8/29/24

Baltimore Orioles

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on August 29, 2024, both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Dodgers holding a record of 79-54 and the Orioles at 77-57. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the third game in the series, with the Dodgers having won the previous contest 6-4 on August 28.

The Dodgers are projected to start Bobby Miller, who has struggled this season with a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 7.49. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 4.42 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Miller’s last outing was uneventful, where he pitched 6 innings allowing 3 earned runs while striking out 9 batters. He faces a Baltimore offense that ranks 5th in MLB, but with a low-walk approach, they may struggle against Miller’s control issues.

On the other side, Cade Povich is slated to start for the Orioles, entering the game with a 1-6 record and a 6.10 ERA. Povich’s last start was a disaster, giving up 5 earned runs in just 5 innings. His high-flyball tendency could be problematic against a Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in home runs, potentially turning Povich’s mistakes into big hits.

Despite the projections favoring the Dodgers, who are expected to score around 5.28 runs, the Orioles’ powerful lineup could keep things competitive. With the Dodgers’ bullpen ranked 5th and the Orioles’ at 21st, the late innings could be crucial in determining the outcome of this high-stakes game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Cade Povich has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.29 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.91 — a 1.62 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Colton Cowser has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph dropping to 82.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+120)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected offense profiles as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Bobby Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Bobby Miller’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this season (96.9 mph) below where it was last year (98.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Gavin Lux is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 63 away games (+15.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+11.80 Units / 148% ROI)