Player Insights for Giants vs Reds – 8/02/24

San Francisco Giants

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Cincinnati Reds

On August 2, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the San Francisco Giants at Great American Ball Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are sitting near the middle of the standings, with the Reds at a record of 52-56 and the Giants slightly better at 54-56. The Reds have been struggling lately, coming off a heavy defeat to the Chicago Cubs, losing 13-4 on July 31. In contrast, the Giants are riding a wave of momentum after a strong performance that saw them shut out the Oakland Athletics 1-0 in their last outing.

The starting matchup features Andrew Abbott for the Reds, who has had a difficult stretch recently, including a lackluster 4-inning outing in his last start where he allowed 4 earned runs. Abbott’s xFIP of 5.05 suggests he may be due for a downturn, as it indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season. His average projections for this game include allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out 5.5 batters, which may not be enough against a Giants lineup that has been more consistent.

On the other hand, Blake Snell takes the mound for the Giants. Despite a rough start to the season with a 0-3 record, Snell’s recent form has been impressive, highlighted by a 6-inning performance where he recorded 15 strikeouts without allowing any earned runs. His projections for this matchup show he is expected to give up 2.5 earned runs while striking out an impressive 6.7 batters.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are favored, projecting to score 5.30 runs on average, while the Reds are estimated to score around 4.32 runs. With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st in the league, they have the advantage in late-game situations, which could prove critical in what is expected to be a tightly contested matchup.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Blake Snell has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an additional 5.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Matt Chapman generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Blake Snell – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Andrew Abbott’s curveball rate has decreased by 5.3% from last season to this one (17.1% to 11.8%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  T.J. Friedl has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+125/-165)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 50 of their last 89 games (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.30 Units / 233% ROI)