Player Insights for Athletics vs Mariners – 9/27/24

Oakland Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners set to host the Oakland Athletics on September 27, 2024, this American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park comes with varying stakes. While the Mariners have secured an above-average season with an 82-77 record, they remain outside playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Athletics languish at 69-90, reflecting a challenging year. Adding intrigue to the matchup, Seattle’s strong finish included an impressive 8-1 victory over the Houston Astros, while Oakland edged out the Texas Rangers 3-2 in their recent contest.

The Mariners will look to continue their winning ways behind starting pitcher Bryan Woo. With an 8-3 win-loss record, Woo’s season has been marked by a stellar 3.02 ERA, positioning him as the 41st-best starting pitcher in the league. While his 3.87 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved, Woo’s average projection to allow just 1.8 earned runs today could spell trouble for the Athletics. Furthermore, his ability to strike out six batters on average enhances Seattle’s chances given Oakland’s mediocre offense, ranked 21st.

Facing off against Woo is JP Sears for the Athletics. Sears boasts an 11-12 record with a 4.43 ERA, which aligns with his average performance metrics. However, Seattle’s high-strikeout offense plays into Sears’ strengths, as the Mariners rank 1st in strikeouts but also possess patience at the plate. His low 18.1% strikeout rate might still find success against the league’s most strikeout-prone lineup.

Though the Mariners’ offense struggles with a .220 batting average (29th) and ranks 22nd overall, the team sees an edge in power with their 13th in home runs. Meanwhile, Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for Oakland, delivering a .298 average with 38 home runs. Still, projections favor Seattle to score around 4.24 runs, outpacing Oakland’s 3.24, supporting the Mariners not just as a betting favorite but potentially offering value beyond the market’s 60% implied win probability. With Seattle ranked lower than expected in offense and their bullpen’s shaky 24th ranking, any advantage looms large in this series opener.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given that groundball pitchers hold a significant edge over groundball batters, JP Sears and his 41.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in this game squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Brent Rooker has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .298 rate is quite a bit higher than his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Kyle McCann, Zack Gelof).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bryan Woo has relied on his change-up 5.7% more often this year (9.3%) than he did last year (3.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games at home (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+155)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 away games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 31 games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)