Player Insights for Athletics vs Mariners – 9/27/24

Oakland Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 27, 2024, the stakes are clear in this American League West matchup. The Mariners, with an 82-77 record, are enjoying an above-average season and remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Athletics have struggled to a 69-90 record, marking a disappointing season.

Seattle will look to build on their recent success, having last played on September 25, when they convincingly defeated the Houston Astros 8-1. Oakland also comes off a win, narrowly edging out the Texas Rangers 3-2 in their previous outing.

The Mariners will send Luis Castillo to the mound, a right-handed pitcher ranked 52nd among approximately 350 MLB starters, making him a strong option. Castillo holds an 11-12 record with a solid 3.64 ERA this season. However, his recent outings have been inconsistent, with his last start on September 8 limited to just three innings. Despite this, projections suggest he’ll allow only 1.6 earned runs on average today, which is elite.

Opposing him is JP Sears for the Athletics, a lefty with an 11-12 record and a 4.43 ERA. Sears was roughed up in his last start, giving up six earned runs in five innings. Although he faces a high-strikeout Mariners offense, his low-strikeout rate (18.1 K%) might align well against Seattle’s tendency to strike out frequently.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 22nd overall, but their power is notable, ranking 13th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics rank 21st in offense and 8th in home runs, showing a bit more pop.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Seattle is a big favorite with a projected win probability of 65%, suggesting value in betting on the Mariners. With the Mariners’ playoff hopes still alive, this game could be pivotal for their postseason aspirations.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Given that groundball pitchers hold a significant edge over groundball batters, JP Sears and his 41.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in this game squaring off against 5 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under Total Bases
  When it comes to his home runs, Lawrence Butler has had positive variance on his side this year. His 30.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Oakland Athletics offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 63.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under Hits
  J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games at home (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+145)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 away games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• JP Sears – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105/-135)
  JP Sears has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 58% ROI)