Player Analysis for Twins vs Royals – April 09, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on April 9, 2025, they find themselves riding momentum from a recent victory. In their last outing, the Royals secured a win, improving their record to 6-5, which marks an above-average start to the season. Meanwhile, the Twins have struggled, sitting at 3-8 and having the 29th ranked offense in MLB, making this matchup rather significant for both teams.

This American League Central showdown features Seth Lugo taking the mound for the Royals, who is projected to pitch 5.9 innings today. Lugo has had a solid start to the season, boasting a 1-0 record and a commendable 3.27 ERA. Despite a higher 4.62 xFIP suggesting some luck may be at play, he faces a Twins offense that has underperformed significantly, ranking 28th in team batting average.

On the other side, the Twins will send Joe Ryan to the hill. Ryan has had a rough start as well, with a 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA. However, his advanced metrics indicate he may have been unlucky, as his 3.08 SIERA suggests he could perform better going forward. Both pitchers are right-handed and have been average in terms of projected strikeouts, but Ryan’s elite status as the 19th best starting pitcher could tilt the odds slightly in favor of Minnesota.

Given the projections, Kansas City’s offense, while ranked 18th overall, may find it challenging against Ryan’s high-flyball approach, especially as the Royals have hit the 4th least home runs in the league. This game is set for a low total of 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tight contest. With both teams having low implied team totals of 3.75 runs, it remains to be seen which squad can capitalize on the opportunities presented.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Joe Ryan’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (71.9 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota’s 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #25 team in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Seth Lugo’s 92.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 20th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cavan Biggio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cavan Biggio can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+16.05 Units / 43% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 111 games (+12.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)