Player Analysis for Reds vs Guardians – September 24, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on September 24, 2024, the stakes are high for the Guardians, who are enjoying a strong season with a 90-67 record. They have positioned themselves well for potential postseason play, unlike the Reds, who are out of contention with a 76-81 record.

The Guardians come into this interleague matchup with Tanner Bibee on the mound. Bibee has been solid throughout the year, boasting an 11-8 record and a respectable 3.56 ERA. Ranked as the 41st-best starting pitcher in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bibee gives the Guardians a clear edge in the pitching department. On the other hand, the Reds will counter with Carson Spiers, who has struggled this season. Spiers has a 5-6 record and an ERA of 5.40, which ranks him among the worst pitchers statistically.

The Guardians’ offense ranks 17th in MLB, with a notable 5th-place ranking in stolen bases, while the Reds’ offense is slightly better overall, ranked 16th, but struggles with a 26th-place ranking in batting average. Both offenses have had their moments, but Cleveland’s lineup should capitalize against a Reds’ pitching staff and bullpen that rank 24th in MLB.

Recent performances highlight Kyle Manzardo as Cleveland’s standout over the past week, with a .417 batting average and 1.167 OPS. For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz has been hot, hitting .346 with a .986 OPS.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Guardians a 63% win probability and projects them to score an average of 5.37 runs. This, combined with the Guardians’ implied win probability of 63%, aligns well, suggesting that Cleveland is not only favored but also in a strong position to deliver a win in this series opener. The Reds face an uphill battle given their underdog status with a 37% implied win probability and a less favorable pitching matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Carson Spiers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Due to his large platoon split, Carson Spiers encounters a tough challenge squaring off against 8 batters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jake Fraley has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.9-mph dropping to 77.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Cincinnati Reds offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Tanner Bibee has suffered a big decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2363 rpm over the whole season to 2278 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Jose Ramirez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-195)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 71 games at home (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 126 games (+10.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)