Player Analysis for Rays vs Yankees – July 22, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will look to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 22, 2024, at Yankee Stadium after dropping the third game of the series 6-4. The Yankees, with a robust 60-42 record, are having a stellar season and currently sit comfortably in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Rays are at a middling 50-50, reflecting an average season and clinging to postseason hopes.

The game will feature a pitching duel between Carlos Rodon for the Yankees and Zack Littell for the Rays. Rodon, a lefty, has had a solid season, starting 20 games with a 9-7 record and a 4.63 ERA. His advanced metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by his 3.92 SIERA. The Yankees will be hoping Rodon can tap into that potential and curb the Rays’ offense, which ranks 21st in MLB and has struggled with power, sitting 26th in home runs.

On the flip side, the Rays will counter with right-hander Zack Littell, who has a 3-6 record and a 4.26 ERA over 18 starts. Littell is known for his control, boasting a low walk rate of 4.3%, but faces a daunting task against a Yankees offense ranked 4th overall and 2nd in home runs. Littell’s high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against New York’s powerful lineup.

Offensively, the Yankees are led by Aaron Judge, who has put up MVP-caliber numbers this season with a .309 batting average, 35 home runs, and a 1.116 OPS. Over the last week, Juan Soto has been scorching hot, hitting .611 with two home runs and a 1.909 OPS. For the Rays, Isaac Paredes has been their standout performer, with a respectable .811 OPS and 16 home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Yankees rank 19th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rays come in at 11th. Despite this, projections favor the Yankees heavily. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees have a 64% chance of winning, and they are currently listed as -165 favorites.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Zack Littell has relied on his four-seamer 7.7% less often this season (20.2%) than he did last year (27.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Isaac Paredes has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 87.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 85.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Brandon Lowe, Alex Jackson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Carlos Rodon’s 94.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 79th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Trent Grisham has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 16.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount lower than his 23.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• New York Yankees bats as a unit rank in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+11.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-125/-105)
  Juan Soto has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)