Player Analysis for Rangers vs Orioles – June 23, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Texas Rangers on June 23, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling to find their rhythm this season. The Orioles currently sit at 33-44, while the Rangers are slightly better at 38-40. This matchup is particularly interesting as the Orioles are projected to start Trevor Rogers, a left-handed pitcher ranked #205 among starters, facing off against fellow lefty Patrick Corbin, who also ranks poorly among MLB pitchers.

In their last outing, the Orioles’ best hitter has been on a tear, recording 6 hits and 8 RBIs over the past week, showcasing some offensive promise despite the team’s overall #21 ranking in runs scored. The projections suggest that Rogers, despite his solid ERA of 3.12, could struggle with allowing 3.1 earned runs and 5.9 hits on average today. This inconsistency may pose challenges, especially against a Rangers lineup that, although ranked #28 in overall offense, has the capacity to exploit any pitching weaknesses.

On the other hand, Corbin, with a respectable ERA of 3.91, also faces scrutiny as his projections indicate he may allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.0 hits today. The Rangers may look to capitalize on Rogers’ luck, as their power numbers rank better than their overall metrics, sitting at #20 for home runs.

With a Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, betting markets indicate a closely contested game, making the Orioles’ -130 moneyline a noteworthy consideration. Given their stronger bullpen, ranked #12 compared to the Rangers’ #24, the Orioles might have the edge in a game that could see them finally turn their season around.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Among all starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity of 90.5 mph is in the 9th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Extreme groundball batters like Marcus Semien tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Trevor Rogers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Trevor Rogers is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #4 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Cedric Mullins is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  In today’s game, Gary Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.9% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.88 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 73 games (+19.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+11.40 Units / 190% ROI)