Player Analysis for Orioles vs Braves – July 06, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on July 6, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling, each holding a record of 39-49 this season. This matchup marks the third game in their series, with Atlanta looking to capitalize on their home field advantage at Truist Park after a disappointing performance in their last outing.

The Braves are projected to start right-hander Grant Holmes, who, despite a challenging 4-7 record, boasts a solid ERA of 3.47 this season. Holmes is recognized as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating he is above average in performance. His ability to strike out hitters, with a 28.2 K% this year, could play a pivotal role against a high-strikeout Orioles offense, which ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, Baltimore will counter with lefty Trevor Rogers, who has had a rocky season thus far. While he holds an impressive ERA of 2.05, his projected performance suggests he may not maintain this level of success, as indicated by his 3.81 xFIP. Rogers is expected to pitch fewer innings than Holmes, which could be a factor as the game unfolds.

Offensively, the Braves rank 22nd in MLB, while the Orioles sit at 21st. Both teams have underperformed, but Atlanta’s lineup features a standout hitter who has been in fine form recently, recording a .435 batting average over the last week. The projections suggest Atlanta has a high implied team total of 4.94 runs, bolstering their status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -155.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Trevor Rogers’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph increase from last year’s 91.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Batters such as Cedric Mullins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Grant Holmes who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Grant Holmes and his 42.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today’s matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Sean Murphy is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+11.33 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)