Player Analysis for Orioles vs Braves – July 06, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on July 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in a challenging situation, each sporting a 39-49 record. This Interleague matchup marks the third game of the series, and the Braves will look to bounce back after a tough 9-6 loss to the Orioles on July 5. Both teams are struggling this season, making this game crucial for building momentum.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, who has been solid with a 3.47 ERA this year, ranking him as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB. Holmes is coming off a strong performance in his last start, where he pitched 6 innings, striking out 10 batters while allowing no earned runs. His high strikeout rate of 28.2% could be advantageous against an Orioles offense that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts. However, his 4.16 FIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far this season.

Opposing him is Trevor Rogers for the Orioles, who has an impressive 2.05 ERA but has only started four games this year. While Rogers has performed well recently, the projections indicate he may face challenges, as he projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs and 5.6 hits in just under 5 innings of work.

Offensively, the Braves rank 21st in MLB, struggling to capitalize on scoring opportunities, while the Orioles rank 18th. Despite their challenges, the Braves are favored in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.62 runs. If Grant Holmes can continue his strong performance and the Braves’ offense can find their rhythm, they might just get the win they desperately need.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Trevor Rogers’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph increase from last year’s 91.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Grant Holmes and his 42.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today’s matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Sean Murphy is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+11.33 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)