Player Analysis for Orioles vs Braves – July 05, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on July 5, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams are looking to bounce back from tight losses in their previous game, where the Braves fell to the Orioles 3-2. With the Braves sitting at 39-48 and the Orioles at 38-49, neither team is enjoying a stellar season, but the stakes remain high in this Interleague matchup.

The Braves are projected to start Aaron Bummer, who, despite an impressive ERA of 2.86, has yet to start a game this season, appearing only out of the bullpen. His limited innings pitched—averaging just 1.2 per outing—raises concerns about his effectiveness against a struggling Baltimore lineup. Meanwhile, Dean Kremer is set to take the mound for the Orioles. Kremer has a mix of experience and inconsistency, holding a 4.27 ERA and a 7-7 record in 17 starts this year. Interestingly, he pitched exceptionally well in his last outing, going seven innings without allowing an earned run.

Offensively, the Braves rank 22nd in MLB, while the Orioles are just a notch above at 21st. Both teams are battling to find their rhythm at the plate, but Atlanta’s best hitter has been on a tear lately, registering a .294 batting average and a 1.176 OPS over the past week. This could provide a spark against Kremer, who projects to allow over three earned runs today.

With the Braves favored at -145, their implied team total stands at 4.58 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to score against the Orioles’ average pitching. As both teams vie for a much-needed win, this matchup could serve as a turning point for one of these struggling clubs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  With a 1.13 gap between Aaron Bummer’s 2.86 ERA and his 3.99 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and should see worse results in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Dean Kremer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+15.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)