Player Analysis for Marlins vs Nationals – September 15, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the Miami Marlins in the fourth game of their series on September 15, 2024, at Nationals Park. Both teams struggle this season, with the Nationals sitting at 67-81 and the Marlins at 55-94, but the Nationals have been slightly more competitive of late. In their most recent matchup on September 14, the Nationals pulled off a solid 4-1 victory over the Marlins, capitalizing on a strong performance.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has had an average season with an ERA of 4.34 and a 3.67 FIP. Although Gore’s win-loss record is 8-12, he has been unlucky, making him a viable option for today. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, giving up approximately 2.2 earned runs. His recent outing on September 10 saw him allow 2 earned runs over 4 innings, indicating that he might be due for a stronger performance today.

On the other hand, the Marlins will send out right-handed pitcher Adam Oller, who has struggled tremendously, evidenced by his 5.40 ERA and poor performance in his last start where he gave up 6 earned runs over 5 innings. Oller’s stats suggest he could face trouble against a Nationals lineup that, while ranking 22nd in overall offensive production, is effective at putting the ball in play.

Despite their respective standings, projections favor the Nationals as they boast a significant edge pitching-wise. The leading MLB projection system indicates the Nationals have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs for today’s game, suggesting they should find success against a struggling Marlins roster. As the Nationals aim to build on their recent victory, they will look to exploit Oller’s weaknesses and reinforce their position in this matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+150)
  The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jesus Sanchez has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 12.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Jesus Sanchez, Cristian Pache).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  MacKenzie Gore has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Gallo stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 148 games (+7.88 Units / 4% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 54 away games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)