Player Analysis for Guardians vs Reds – May 17, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Cleveland Guardians on May 17, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are coming off a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Reds edged out the Guardians with a 5-4 victory. Currently, Cincinnati sits at 22-24 on the season, struggling with below-average performance, while Cleveland boasts a respectable 25-19 record, marking them as a competitive squad this year.

On the mound, the Reds will rely on Chase Petty, who has struggled mightily this season with an ERA of 21.94 and a Win/Loss record of 0-2. Despite his low ranking as the 219th best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections indicate he may have been unlucky thus far, suggesting potential for improvement. However, Petty’s numbers reveal he has been allowing a concerning average of 4.2 hits and 1.4 walks per game, which could be detrimental against a Guardians’ lineup that, despite being ranked 20th in MLB offense, features some capable hitters.

Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi, another right-handed pitcher who has faced his own struggles, ranking as one of the worst in the league. He projects to pitch slightly longer than Petty, averaging 4.8 innings and allowing 2.7 earned runs. Both teams’ bullpens rank around the middle of the pack, so the starting pitchers’ performances will be crucial.

Offensively, the Reds rank 13th in MLB, showing average ability at the plate, while Cleveland’s offense has been lackluster at 20th in the league. This game features a high total of 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive output. The Reds have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, which suggests that oddsmakers are giving them a fair chance to produce, especially with their best hitter recently showing solid form. As the series continues, fans can expect an exciting matchup where both teams will look to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Slade Cecconi has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in the league on balls in play since the start of last season with a .319 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  This season, Daniel Schneemann has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.9 mph compared to last year’s 90.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brent Suter will “start” for Cincinnati Reds today but will function as an opener and may not pitch more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Typically, hitters like Elly De La Cruz who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Luis Ortiz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chase Petty – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Jose Trevino, the Reds’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+380/-580)
  Will Benson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+6.90 Units / 173% ROI)