Player Analysis for D-Backs vs Blue Jays – June 19, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays

On June 19, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Rogers Centre for the third game of their interleague series. The Blue Jays are currently performing well, holding a record of 40-33, while the Diamondbacks sit at 36-37, indicating an average season. In their last matchup on June 18, the Blue Jays triumphed decisively with an 8-1 victory, which adds some momentum heading into this game.

Toronto’s Kevin Gausman is projected to start, and while he has been battling inconsistency this season, he is considered an average pitcher according to advanced statistics, ranking as the 103rd best starting pitcher among roughly 350 in MLB. Gausman’s ERA stands at 4.08, reflecting some bad luck, as his 3.55 xFIP suggests he may improve in the near future. His ability to limit walks (6.5 BB%) could be crucial against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB for drawing walks.

On the other side, Ryne Nelson will take the mound for Arizona. Nelson, who has struggled this season, is projected to allow 3.2 earned runs and 6.3 hits on average today, which does not bode well against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 5th in team batting average. The Diamondbacks, despite having the 3rd best offense in terms of home runs, may find it challenging to capitalize on Gausman’s occasional struggles.

With the Blue Jays’ bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, they enter this game as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155 and an implied team total of 4.66 runs, suggesting strong confidence in their overall performance. The matchup presents an intriguing contrast between Gausman’s solid control and Nelson’s challenges, setting the stage for what could be another favorable outing for the Blue Jays.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Ryne Nelson’s 94.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 82nd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Alek Thomas is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Toronto (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Kevin Gausman is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 47 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Addison Barger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.40 Units / 69% ROI)