Player Analysis for Cardinals vs Yankees – September 01, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 1, 2024, they find themselves in a tight race for postseason positioning. The Yankees currently hold a record of 79-57, showcasing their strength this season, while the Cardinals sit at 68-68, having struggled to find consistency. In their last matchup on August 31, the Yankees fell to the Cardinals in a close 6-5 game, which adds a layer of intrigue to this series.

Starting on the mound for the Yankees is Nestor Cortes, who ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Cortes has had a decent year with a 3.89 ERA and is coming off a solid performance where he pitched 7 innings with just 1 earned run allowed. His ability to limit runs will be crucial against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 20th in MLB offensively. Despite his high hit projection of 4.8, he’s expected to keep the Cardinals at bay.

On the other side, Miles Mikolas takes the hill for St. Louis. Mikolas has struggled with a 5.23 ERA this season and is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs. His xFIP of 4.17 suggests he might be due for a turnaround, but facing the Yankees’ potent offense—ranked 1st overall—will be a significant challenge.

With the Yankees boasting the 2nd best home run tally in MLB and an implied team total of 5.73 runs for this matchup, they are positioned as heavy favorites. The projections indicate a strong likelihood of a Yankees victory, which would further solidify their playoff aspirations as they look to bounce back after their recent loss.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Placing in the 2nd percentile, Miles Mikolas put up a 6.8% Swinging Strike rate this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Arenado generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 squad in the league this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-260)
  Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 87 games (+19.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+11.00 Units / 16% ROI)