Player Analysis for Cardinals vs Cubs – September 26, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on September 26, 2025, both teams are heading in different directions. The Cubs are enjoying a strong season with an 89-70 record, firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Cardinals sit at 78-81, having struggled throughout the year. Despite this, the Cubs are coming off a disappointing performance in their last game, where they fell short against the Cardinals.

On the mound, the Cubs are set to start Colin Rea, who has a 10-7 record and a 4.10 ERA this season. Although Rea ranks as the 191st best starting pitcher in MLB, his ability to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs could be enough against a Cardinals offense that ranks 23rd overall. However, Rea’s high hit allowance of 5.4 per game raises questions about his effectiveness.

Miles Mikolas will take the hill for the Cardinals, bringing an 8-10 record and a 4.76 ERA. Mikolas has struggled this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. His projections suggest he will pitch 4.8 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a potent Cubs offense that ranks 9th in MLB. The Cubs are particularly dangerous with their power, ranking 7th in home runs, while the Cardinals sit at 29th in the same category.

With the Cubs projected to score 5.05 runs, and their bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their strengths against a Cardinals team that has not found its footing this season. The stakes are high, and the Cubs will look to leverage their offensive prowess to secure a crucial win in this pivotal matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Miles Mikolas has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under Total Bases
  Despite posting a .256 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has experienced some negative variance given the .055 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Thomas Saggese, Jordan Walker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Colin Rea has utilized his four-seam fastball 22.3% more often this season (42.2%) than he did last year (19.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under Hits
  Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under Team Total
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)