Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Red Sox – April 07, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

On April 7, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park for the first game of a crucial series in the American League East. The Red Sox are currently sitting at 6-4 this season and are coming off a dominant 18-7 victory against the Toronto Blue Jays, who will be looking to bounce back after their 2-1 loss in their last outing. This matchup is significant for both teams as they aim to establish momentum early in the season.

The Red Sox will send Richard Fitts to the mound, who, despite being ranked as the 233rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has an average ERA of 4.50. Fitts has had an uneven start to the season, with a 0-1 record, and he projects to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. His performance will be critical against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled offensively, ranking 21st overall in MLB.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Easton Lucas, who boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA in his first start of the year. However, projections indicate he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.20, suggesting possible regression. Lucas’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts, but the Blue Jays’ ability to draw walks may help them exploit his control issues.

Given the Red Sox’s strong performance thus far this season and their favorable matchup against Lucas, they are positioned to maintain their momentum and capitalize on their home-field advantage. With a projected team total of 4.71 runs, they could very well continue their winning ways in this high-stakes matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Easton Lucas – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Easton Lucas has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 29.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Anthony Santander has struggled with his Barrel%; his 11.7% rate last year has fallen off to 4% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Richard Fitts in the 12th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Alex Bregman has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year’s 89-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kristian Campbell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Kristian Campbell has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.60 Units / 108% ROI)