Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Red Sox – April 07, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

On April 7, 2025, the Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park for the first game in their series. The Red Sox currently sit at 6-4 for the season, showcasing a strong start, while the Blue Jays are at 5-5, illustrating a more average beginning. The magnitude of this matchup, with two divisional rivals facing off, adds extra importance as both teams aim to establish dominance in the American League East.

The Red Sox come off an impressive offensive showing, winning their last game 18-7 against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 6. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are looking to rebound after a narrow 2-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, which highlighted their struggles at the plate. This season, Boston’s offense ranks 5th overall in MLB and possesses a potent combination of talent, despite ranking 27th in home runs.

Richard Fitts is projected to start for Boston, aiming to improve on his rough outing earlier this season, which resulted in a 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA over just one start. Although the projections suggest an average performance, Fitts has a 3.73 xFIP, indicating he may be due for a turnaround. His matchup against Jose Berrios, who has struggled with a 6.75 ERA and a high walk rate, could provide the Red Sox with an opportunity to capitalize on Berrios’s difficulty with control.

As for the betting landscape, the Red Sox’s moneyline is set at -130, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure the win, while the Blue Jays sit at +110. With the game total projected at 8.5 runs, expect an engaging contest as these two teams battle for early-season supremacy.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Considering that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over groundball batters, Jose Berrios and his 32.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today’s outing squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Richard Fitts in the 12th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Alex Bregman has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year’s 89-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Trevor Story, Triston Casas).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-150)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 69% ROI)