Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Rangers – May 28, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays face off on May 28, 2025, at Globe Life Field for the third game of their series, after the Rangers shut out the Blue Jays 2-0 just yesterday. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rangers sitting at 27-29 and the Blue Jays at 26-28. Despite their records, the Rangers have the edge in this matchup, primarily due to the performance of their projected starter, Tyler Mahle.

Mahle has been performing well, holding a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 1.80. While his 4.16 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression, he remains a solid option against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled at times this season. The projections indicate that Mahle will pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, which could be just enough to keep the Blue Jays at bay.

On the other side, Toronto is sending Eric Lauer to the mound, who has had a rough start to the season with a 1-1 record and a 3.31 ERA. Although Lauer’s ERA looks decent, his underlying numbers, including a 4.40 xFIP, indicate that he has been fortunate. His projection of 4.9 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed could spell trouble against a Rangers offense that, while ranked 27th overall, has shown some signs of life recently, particularly in the power department, ranking 12th in homers.

As the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -150, they are expected to muster a high implied team total of 4.60 runs today. With Mahle on the mound facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks as the 18th best in MLB, the Rangers have a favorable opportunity to capitalize and secure a win.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Eric Lauer has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tyler Mahle.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Today, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.5% rate (80th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Tyler Mahle’s 91.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 15th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Adolis Garcia is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Nathan Lukes has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+12.50 Units / 125% ROI)