Player Analysis for Angels vs Astros – September 21, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

Houston Astros

As the Astros and Angels prepare for their clash at Minute Maid Park on September 21, 2024, the stakes remain high for Houston in the context of their postseason aspirations. With an 84-70 record, the Astros are having an above-average season and are still in contention for American League West supremacy. Meanwhile, the Angels, at 62-92, have had a dismal season, losing six straight and being eliminated from division contention.

In the last meeting between these two teams, Houston triumphed over Los Angeles with a 9-7 victory. The game underscored the Astros’ superiority in this series as they seek to sweep the Angels. The Astros were dominant favorites with an implied win probability of 70%. In contrast, the Angels, despite their efforts, played the role of underdogs with a 30% implied chance.

On the mound, the Astros will start Ronel Blanco, whose 2.88 ERA this season paints a picture of dominance, yet his 4.15 xFIP suggests fortune has been on his side. Blanco’s previous outing was stellar, pitching six scoreless innings. For the Angels, Reid Detmers looks to rebound after giving up seven earned runs in his last start. Although his 6.05 ERA appears bleak, a 3.91 xFIP indicates potential for improvement.

Offensively, the Astros rank 11th in Power Rankings, driven by Yordan Alvarez’s solid season. Alvarez showcases a .301 batting average and 34 home runs. On the other side, the Angels’ struggling 28th-ranked offense looks to Zach Neto and a surging Eric Wagaman, who boasts a .355 average over the past week.

Betting lines favor the Astros as big favorites (-230 moneyline) with the model projecting a 65% win chance for Houston. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Astros scoring big with 5.47 runs, while the Angels are projected at 4.22 runs, an average mark amid their struggles.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Reid Detmers – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Reid Detmers has been given an above-average leash this year, recording 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (9.3) provides evidence that Nolan Schanuel has been very fortunate this year with his 13.1 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Niko Kavadas, Mickey Moniak, Logan O’Hoppe, Jack Lopez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ronel Blanco’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (61.7% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  In the last two weeks, Victor Caratini’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 85 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+15.65 Units / 56% ROI)