Pirates vs White Sox Picks and Betting Odds – 7/13/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Chicago White Sox

On July 13, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Guaranteed Rate Field in an interleague clash. The White Sox, enduring a woeful season with a 27-69 record, are looking to salvage some pride, while the Pirates, sitting at 46-48, maintain hopes of breaking even this season.

In yesterday’s series opener, the Pirates edged out the White Sox in a tightly contested game. The White Sox’s struggles were apparent as they leaned heavily on Danny Mendick, who has been their standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .300 batting average and a .964 OPS in his last four games. Meanwhile, Oneil Cruz has been the Pirates’ offensive spark, recording two homers and four RBIs over the past week with an impressive 1.218 OPS.

Chris Flexen gets the nod for the White Sox. With a 2-7 record and a 4.95 ERA###101, Flexen has had a rough year. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Flexen is ranked as the 290th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. His projected 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks allowed per game underline his struggles. However, facing a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts, Flexen might find a glimmer of hope as his low strikeout rate (17.2 K%) could match up well against Pittsburgh’s weaknesses.

On the mound for the Pirates will be Luis Ortiz, who despite boasting a 2.95 ERA###102, has peripherals suggesting regression. His 4.26 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate thus far. Ortiz’s projections align with an average outing, suggesting 5.2 innings of work and 2.5 earned runs allowed. His tendency to allow flyballs could play to his advantage against a White Sox lineup that ranks 26th in home runs.

Offensively, both teams are near the bottom of the league, with the White Sox ranked 29th in team batting average and 29th in overall offensive capability. The Pirates aren’t much better, ranking 27th and 28th respectively. However, Pittsburgh holds an edge in power with a 17th ranking in home runs compared to Chicago’s 26th.

The bullpens could play a pivotal role, with the Pirates holding a significant advantage. Their bullpen ranks 6th, while the White Sox’s pen is dead last. This disparity could be critical in a game with a high total of 9.0 runs.

Bettors have the Pirates as favorites with a moneyline of -150, translating to a 58% implied win probability. The White Sox, marked as underdogs at +130, have a 42% implied chance. Given the Pirates’ superior bullpen and slightly better overall performance, they seem poised to continue their quest towards a .500 season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Ortiz has relied on his non-fastballs 7.7% more often this year (54.9%) than he did last season (47.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.6-mph average last year has dropped off to 88.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+115)
  The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Martin Maldonado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  With a .235 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Martin Maldonado grades out in the 0th percentile for offensive ability.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+14.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 131% ROI)