Pirates vs Brewers Betting Line and Odds – (July 11, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to clash on July 11, 2024, at American Family Field in a National League Central matchup. The Brewers, currently enjoying a strong season with a 54-39 record, sit in a favorable position within the division. On the other hand, the Pirates, at 44-48, are having a below-average season, making this an important game for them to stay competitive.

The Brewers will send Aaron Civale to the mound. Civale has had a tough year, with a 2-6 record and a 5.18 ERA###101. Despite these struggles, his 4.13 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating he might perform better moving forward. Civale is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters on average.

Paul Skenes will start for the Pirates and has been nothing short of spectacular. With a 5-0 record and a stellar 2.12 ERA###102, Skenes ranks as the #4 best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 2.84 xERA hints that he may have been a bit fortunate and could regress slightly. Skenes is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 7.3 batters on average.

The Brewers’ offense, ranked 8th best overall with a team batting average that sits 4th, will provide a significant challenge for Skenes. While they excel in several offensive categories, their ability to draw walks could be mitigated by Skenes’s excellent control, as he boasts a low 5.2% walk rate.

Conversely, the Pirates’ offense has struggled, ranking 27th overall and 25th in team batting average. However, they do rank a respectable 15th in home runs, which could pose a threat to Civale who has had issues with allowing hits.

Both bullpens are relatively average, with the Brewers’ bullpen ranked 19th and the Pirates’ ranked 14th. This could mean that late-inning heroics might not be as prevalent in this matchup.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates have a 53% chance to win this game, slightly better than their implied probability of 54%. This suggests a close contest, with the Brewers looking to leverage their home-field advantage and strong offense to counter the Pirates’ elite starting pitching.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Paul Skenes has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.4-mph to 99.3-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit grade out 8th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 8.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Aaron Civale has gone to his cut-fastball 6% less often this year (31.4%) than he did last year (37.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Despite posting a .405 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Yelich has had positive variance on his side given the .054 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)