Picks and Betting Line for Rays vs Red Sox Friday, September 27, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 27, 2024, at Fenway Park, this American League East matchup features two teams navigating average seasons. With the Red Sox sitting at 80-79 and the Rays at 78-81, both teams are playing for pride more than playoff contention. Recently, both squads suffered losses—the Red Sox fell 6-1 to the Blue Jays on September 25, while the Rays were edged out 4-3 by the Tigers.

The Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who despite a modest 6-11 record, holds an above-average rank as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB. Pivetta has been largely unlucky this season, as indicated by his 4.21 ERA versus a more favorable 3.51 xFIP. He faces a struggling Rays offense, ranked 27th in both team batting average and home runs. This matchup could play into Pivetta’s strengths as a high-strikeout (29.1 K%) and high-flyball pitcher. Moreover, the Rays have the 6th most strikeouts in MLB, potentially amplifying Pivetta’s effectiveness.

The Rays will counter with Taj Bradley, who ranks as the 71st best starting pitcher this season. Bradley enters with a similar narrative, as his 4.30 ERA has been masked by a 3.66 xFIP. Bradley faces a potent Red Sox lineup ranked 7th in overall offense, 6th in batting average, and 8th in home runs. However, Boston also strikes out often, positioned as the 3rd most strikeout-prone lineup, offering Bradley a potential advantage.

Despite the team’s close implied win probabilities, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Red Sox a slight nod with a 52% chance to win. As these divisional rivals clash, fans can anticipate a tightly-contested affair.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Taj Bradley has relied on his change-up 13.3% more often this year (27.2%) than he did last season (13.9%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Boston’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Josh Lowe, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Nick Pivetta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2256 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2315 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.310 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .321 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 92 of their last 154 games (+25.26 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+23.85 Units / 199% ROI)