Picks and Betting Guide for Phillies vs Pirates – Saturday, July 20, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As we look ahead to this intriguing National League matchup on July 20, 2024, between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies, there are some key factors to consider. The Pirates, who are 49-48 this season, have been hovering around .500, while the Phillies have been on a tear with a 62-35 record, positioning themselves as one of the elite teams in MLB.

The Pirates will send right-handed pitcher Luis Ortiz to the mound. Despite his solid 2.84 ERA, advanced metrics suggest Ortiz has been fortunate this season. His 4.15 xFIP indicates he might regress. Ortiz will face a potent Phillies lineup ranked 3rd in both overall offense and team batting average. Given that Ortiz is a high-flyball pitcher (37 FB% this year) and the Phillies have hammered 118 home runs (6th in MLB), expect Philly’s power hitters to capitalize on Ortiz’s tendency to yield flyballs.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, who boasts an impressive 2.96 ERA. While Sanchez’s underlying metrics suggest some regression (3.46 SIERA), his performance remains strong. He faces a Pirates offense that has struggled mightily, ranking 28th overall and 26th in team batting average. This disparity gives Sanchez a significant edge.

Both teams look to build momentum in this second game of the series, but the odds heavily favor the Phillies. With a moneyline of -160, the implied win probability for Philadelphia stands at 60%, whereas Pittsburgh’s +140 moneyline gives them just a 40% chance. Given the offensive and pitching mismatches, the Phillies are well-positioned to continue their successful season.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Cristopher Sanchez’s 93.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 2.2-mph spike from last season’s 91.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Trea Turner has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .406 mark is a good deal higher than his .339 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to league average, Luis Ortiz has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -9.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 63 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 92 games (+19.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.75 Units / 65% ROI)