Picks and Betting Guide for Mets vs Padres – Friday, August 23, 2024

New York Mets

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and the New York Mets square off on August 23, 2024, in a crucial contest as both teams look to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Padres sit at 72-57, showcasing a strong season, while the Mets, with a record of 67-61, are having an above-average campaign. After facing each other just yesterday, the Padres fell to the Mets by a score of 8-3, a game that showcased the Mets’ offensive firepower.

As the Padres aim to bounce back, they will send Joe Musgrove to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Musgrove has struggled with a 3-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.97 this season. However, his 4.34 xFIP indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky and could see improved results moving forward. Musgrove is projected to pitch about 5.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. This could be a favorable matchup against a Mets offense that ranks 7th overall but has a low strikeout percentage, which plays into Musgrove’s strengths.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Paul Blackburn, who has a record of 5-3 and a solid ERA of 4.19. However, Blackburn is considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB this season and has struggled with a high walk rate. He projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs and 5.8 hits, which could be problematic against a Padres offense that ranks 1st in team batting average and 8th overall.

The leading MLB projection system suggests that the Padres will score around 4.72 runs in this game, highlighting their offensive potential against a vulnerable Mets bullpen ranked 24th. With the Padres favored at a moneyline of -140, the projections favor San Diego in what could be a pivotal game for their playoff aspirations.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Recording 93.5 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Paul Blackburn checks in at the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Mark Vientos has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Joe Musgrove has used his slider 6.7% more often this season (21.2%) than he did last year (14.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.292) suggests that Jake Cronenworth has suffered from bad luck this year with his .246 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games at home (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 86 games (+8.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)