St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
(-120/+100)-120
The Washington Nationals will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park on July 8, 2024, for the fourth game of their series. The Nationals, with a 42-48 record, have struggled this season, while the Cardinals, at 47-42, are performing above average. This National League matchup will feature left-handed pitcher Mitchell Parker for the Nationals and right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals.
Mitchell Parker, with a 5-4 record and a solid 3.61 ERA###101, is slated to start for Washington. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Parker ranks as the #146 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s below average among his peers. Despite his decent ERA, Parker is projected to pitch just 4.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs on average today, which isn’t particularly promising. His strikeout and walk projections are also below average, suggesting he may struggle against the Cardinals’ offense, which ranks 19th in MLB.
Miles Mikolas, on the other hand, has a 6-7 record with a poor 5.19 ERA this season. However, his peripheral stats indicate he’s been unlucky, with a 4.07 xFIP suggesting better performance ahead. Mikolas is expected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs on average today. His low strikeout rate (17.3 K%) could be a disadvantage against a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in least strikeouts in MLB.
Offensively, the Nationals rank 24th overall, with a dismal 29th in home runs but an impressive 3rd in stolen bases. Luis Garcia has been a bright spot for Washington, hitting .500 with a 1.545 OPS over the last week. The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 19th overall, has seen Nolan Gorman heating up recently, batting .474 with a 1.289 OPS in the past week.
The Nationals’ bullpen, ranked 29th, could be a significant weakness compared to the Cardinals’ 4th-ranked bullpen. With both teams having an implied win probability of 50%, this game is expected to be a close contest. Given the projections and current form, the Cardinals might have the edge, especially if Mikolas’ performance aligns more closely with his xFIP.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Mitchell Parker may not last more than a couple framess consider he will function as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams’s true offensive ability to be a .315, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .049 difference between that figure and his actual .364 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Washington Nationals with a 20.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Run Line -1.5 (+170)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)