Phillies vs Nationals Preview and Prediction – Friday September 27th, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park on September 27, 2024, the two teams find themselves in very different positions. The Nationals, with a 69-90 record, are enduring a difficult season, while the Phillies are enjoying a stellar campaign with a 94-65 record, making this National League East matchup a lopsided affair on paper.

The Nationals will send Trevor Williams to the mound, who, despite boasting a solid 5-1 record and an impressive 2.19 ERA, ranks as the 237th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as his peripheral stats hint at a possible regression. In contrast, the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, ranked 41st among starting pitchers. Suarez’s 3.15 ERA and 12-7 record underline his reliability and effectiveness on the mound.

Washington’s offense has struggled all season, ranking 24th overall in the league. They have particularly lacked power, sitting 29th in home runs, although they do lead the league in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast the 4th best offense, with a strong 4th place ranking in team batting average and 7th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Nationals as significant underdogs, with a projected win probability of just 32%. The projections favor the Phillies, suggesting they may outperform betting market expectations. Philadelphia’s offense, combined with Suarez’s solid presence on the mound, gives them a clear path to victory, while the Nationals will need to capitalize on any potential vulnerabilities Suarez might show against their low-power lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last season (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bryce Harper has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Trevor Williams to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under Total Bases
  Typically, bats like Luis Garcia who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ranger Suarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+155)
  The Washington Nationals projected offense ranks as the worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)