Phillies vs Nationals Preview and Prediction – Friday September 27th, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 27, 2024, at Nationals Park, the contrast between these two National League East teams could not be starker. The Nationals, with a record of 69-90, are enduring a tough season, while the Phillies are thriving at 94-65 and are on track for a playoff berth. With Ranger Suarez taking the mound for the Phillies, their favored status is further justified. He’s ranked 42nd among starting pitchers and boasts a solid 3.15 ERA this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals will counter with Trevor Williams, who, despite an impressive 2.19 ERA, is ranked 238th, indicating potential luck rather than sustained performance.

In terms of offense, the Phillies are a powerhouse, ranked 4th in both overall offense and team batting average, while also sitting 7th in home runs. Their offensive consistency is reflected in Kyle Schwarber’s stellar numbers, featuring 38 homers and a 0.859 OPS. The Nationals, however, struggle offensively, ranking 24th overall and 29th in home runs, although they do lead MLB in stolen bases. Luis Garcia has been their standout performer but lacks the firepower that Schwarber brings to the Phillies.

The Phillies come off a 9-6 victory over the Cubs, showcasing their offensive strength, whereas the Nationals suffered a 7-4 loss to the Royals. With the Phillies favored by both betting markets and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 69% chance to win, this matchup heavily leans towards Philadelphia. Given the Phillies’ impressive lineup and Suarez’s reliability, they appear poised to maintain their momentum against the struggling Nationals.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last season (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brandon Marsh has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 94.7-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Trevor Williams has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Ildemaro Vargas generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+155)
  The Washington Nationals projected offense ranks as the 2nd-worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)