Phillies vs Astros Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 6/26/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet for the third game of their interleague series on June 26, 2025, both teams find themselves with identical records of 47-33, showcasing their strong seasons. In an impressive showing yesterday, the Astros secured a 2-0 victory over the Phillies, adding to their momentum as they aim to secure the series win at Minute Maid Park.

Astros’ right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown is projected to take the mound, bringing a stellar 1.88 ERA this season. Ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, Brown has been a key component for Houston, although the projections suggest he may experience a slight drop in performance moving forward due to a higher xFIP of 2.84. Brown’s average projection of 5.8 innings pitched with 2.1 earned runs allowed indicates he can be relied upon to keep runs in check, but his troublesome stats for hits and walks could be a potential concern.

On the other side, the Phillies counter with Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher who has also enjoyed a strong season with a 2.87 ERA and a ranking of 14th among starting pitchers. Sanchez is coming off an outstanding performance where he pitched a complete game on June 19, allowing just one earned run. His projection for today suggests he will pitch 5.8 innings while allowing around 2.5 earned runs, which should keep the Phillies competitive.

Offensively, the Astros rank 5th in MLB in team batting average, while the Phillies sit at 3rd. However, Houston’s bullpen is rated 23rd, which could play a crucial role late in the game. Betting odds favor the Astros with a moneyline of -150, indicating a solid chance for them to pull off another win and solidify their spot among the top contenders as they navigate the season.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Generating 17.5 outs per start this year on average, Cristopher Sanchez places in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Bryson Stott is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Hunter Brown’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (60.2 vs. 53% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.35 Units / 40% ROI)