Phillies vs Astros Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 6/26/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies prepare for their matchup on June 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, each sporting a record of 47-33. This Interleague series has already proven competitive, and yesterday the Astros claimed victory over the Phillies, adding to the intensity of this matchup.

On the mound, Houston will send Hunter Brown, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. With an 8-3 record and an impressive ERA of 1.88, Brown ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His high strikeout rate of 31.6% will be tested against a Phillies lineup that has the 6th least strikeouts in the league, potentially giving Philadelphia an edge in this critical confrontation.

Cristopher Sanchez takes the hill for the Phillies, boasting a solid 6-2 record and a commendable ERA of 2.87, placing him 14th among MLB starters. While Sanchez’s projections indicate he may allow 2.5 earned runs and pitch 5.8 innings, he faces a challenge against a Houston offense that ranks 3rd in team batting average, showcasing their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Despite the Astros offense being ranked just 15th overall, their recent performance suggests a potential uptick in production. Houston’s best hitter has been on fire, recording 9 hits and 4 home runs over the past week, which could bode well against a Phillies bullpen that ranks 29th in the league.

With the Astros favored at a moneyline of -145, the projections suggest they should score around 3.77 runs, while the Phillies are projected for a meager 3.23 runs. As both teams look to solidify their positions in the standings, this matchup promises to be a compelling clash between two elite pitchers and potent offenses.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Generating 17.5 outs per start this year on average, Cristopher Sanchez places in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Hunter Brown’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (60.2 vs. 53% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros (19.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)