Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Odds – September 25, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres are set to clash in a pivotal National League West matchup on September 25, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers holding a 93-64 record and the Padres close behind at 91-66, both teams are having standout seasons. This second game of the series could have significant implications for playoff positioning, as both teams are vying for the division title.

Yesterday, the Dodgers secured a win against the Padres, adding to their momentum. The Dodgers will send right-hander Jack Flaherty to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 13-7 record and a stellar 3.10 ERA. Flaherty is the 57th-best starting pitcher, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, and he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average. The Padres, however, are known for their low strikeout rate, which might challenge Flaherty’s strength as a high-strikeout pitcher.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Dylan Cease. With a 14-11 record and a 3.42 ERA, Cease is ranked 23rd among starting pitchers. However, his flyball tendencies could be problematic against the Dodgers’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs this season. The Dodgers’ lineup is anchored by Shohei Ohtani, who has been on a tear over the last week, posting a .615 batting average with 5 home runs.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks 2nd overall, while the Padres’ bullpen is the best in MLB, presenting an interesting dynamic. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 55% win probability, slightly higher than betting markets’ implied 54%. With both teams projected to score high, expect a thrilling encounter as these two titans battle for supremacy in the division.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease has utilized his slider 8.2% more often this year (46.8%) than he did last season (38.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The San Diego Padres (17.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Jack Flaherty has put up a 13.4% Swinging Strike rate this year, grading out in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Miguel Rojas’s true offensive talent to be a .284, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .042 gap between that mark and his actual .326 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 88 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 56 games (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-165/+130)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.30 Units / 68% ROI)