Padres vs Braves Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 5/25/2025

San Diego Padres

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on May 25, 2025, at Truist Park, they come off an impressive 7-1 victory the previous day. The Braves have shown signs of life lately, improving their record to 25-26, but they find themselves in a tight battle in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Padres sit above them at 28-22, having also suffered a loss by the same score in their last game.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves and Dylan Cease for the Padres. Schwellenbach, ranked 27th in the MLB among starters, has been adequate this season with a 3-3 record and a solid 3.52 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he might be due for a downturn, as his xERA of 4.05 points to some luck in his early performance. Schwellenbach is projected to pitch around 5.9 innings today, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs.

On the other hand, Cease comes in ranked just above Schwellenbach at 26th despite a disappointing 1-3 record and a 4.50 ERA. His projections view him as potentially underperforming, with a lower xFIP of 3.37 and a better outlook for the rest of the season. The Padres’ offense has been average overall but struggles against low-strikeout pitchers; Schwellenbach’s low strikeout rate (19.7 K%) could play into this narrative.

While both offenses have their strengths, the Braves boast a more powerful lineup, ranking 10th in home runs this season. With Schwellenbach on the mound and the Braves’ decent hitting and bullpen rankings, they may find themselves in a strong position to build off yesterday’s momentum.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate of 2538 rpm ranks in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The San Diego Padres (18.8 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 18.4 outs per outing this year on average, Spencer Schwellenbach places in the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.7-mph now compared to just 91.3-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta’s 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the majors: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 39% ROI)