Orioles vs Red Sox Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/11/2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Boston Red Sox

On September 11, 2024, the Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles for the third game of a crucial series. Currently, the Orioles have a solid grip on their playoff hopes with an 83-63 record, while the Red Sox are hovering around .500 at 73-72, making this matchup significant for both teams, though with very different stakes. In a tightly contested affair the day prior, the Orioles edged out the Red Sox with a 5-3 victory, solidifying their position as one of the top teams in the American League East.

The projections favor the Red Sox in this matchup, indicating a strong chance to rebound. Boston’s potent offense, ranked 6th in MLB, faces off against a struggling Orioles bullpen, which sits at 27th overall. Nick Pivetta, scheduled to start for the Red Sox, has shown signs of improvement and possesses an above-average 3.53 xFIP, hinting at better performances ahead despite his 4.38 ERA. However, he must contend with an Orioles lineup that has belted 212 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league, showcasing their significant power.

For Baltimore, Dean Kremer takes the mound, but his numbers are underwhelming and suggest he could have a rough outing against a strong offense. The Red Sox’s Jarren Duran stands out as the team’s best hitter this season, having played 143 games with 21 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Lately, Rob Refsnyder has been heating up, putting together an impressive week with a .556 batting average and driving in 6 RBIs in just 4 games.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme flyball batters like Austin Slater tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Nick Pivetta (38.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in Baltimore’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Trevor Story is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+5.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 away games (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 36 games (+12.40 Units / 34% ROI)