Orioles vs Red Sox Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, August 18, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Fenway Park on August 18, 2025. Both teams are coming off contrasting performances: the Red Sox recently lost to the Yankees 5-3, while the Orioles delivered a stunning shutout victory against the Blue Jays, winning 12-0.

Currently, the Red Sox sit at 68-57, holding a 5.5-game lead over the Orioles, who are 57-67. Boston’s offense ranks 5th in MLB, boasting a strong lineup that has an impressive team batting average of .273, complemented by their ability to hit home runs and drive in runs. In contrast, Baltimore’s offense struggles at 22nd in the league, with a team batting average of just .239.

Dustin May, the projected starter for the Red Sox, has had an up-and-down season with a 7-8 record and a 4.67 ERA. However, he is coming off a strong outing where he pitched 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. The projections suggest he might allow around 2.6 earned runs today, indicating some potential for improvement. Meanwhile, Trevor Rogers, starting for the Orioles, boasts an excellent 1.43 ERA but may have benefited from some luck, as indicated by his higher xFIP.

Considering their recent form and offensive capabilities, the Red Sox appear well-positioned to capitalize on Baltimore’s pitching vulnerabilities. Betting markets reflect this assessment, with Boston’s moneyline currently set at -120, indicating a close contest where the Red Sox are favored. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. All things considered, the Red Sox, driven by their potent offense and a potentially revitalized May, could take a step forward in this crucial series opener.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Trevor Rogers’s 2416-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under Hits
  Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dustin May to throw 85 pitches in this game (9th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jarren Duran has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.4-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 7th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games at home (+12.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 106 games (+16.93 Units / 14% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)