Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros
(-120/+100)-140
As the Baltimore Orioles visit Minute Maid Park to face the Houston Astros on August 16, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum. The Astros are currently third in the American League West with a solid record of 68-54, while the Orioles sit at 56-66, struggling in the competitive AL East. In their last matchup, the Astros were shut out by the Orioles 7-0, marking a tough outing for Houston.
On the mound for the Astros, Jason Alexander is projected to start. Despite a Win/Loss record of 3-1 this season, he ranks as the 242nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he has been one of the less effective arms in the league. His ERA stands at 5.02, a troubling figure that suggests he may be due for some positive regression, as his xERA of 4.49 projects a better performance. However, Alexander has been known for his high walk rate (10.7 BB%), which could be a concern against an Orioles lineup that is patient at the plate.
Rico Garcia, projected to start for the Orioles, brings a contrasting profile. With a strong ERA of 3.31 and an impressive strikeout rate of 27.9 K%, he could pose challenges for the Astros, who are among the lowest in MLB for strikeouts. Garcia’s low walk rate of 5.9 BB% fits well against an Astros offense that also struggles to draw walks.
Despite the Astros’ recent struggles, their offense ranks 3rd in MLB in batting average and is expected to score 4.54 runs today. With the odds favoring them at -140, the projections hint that Houston may bounce back from their previous defeat and find their rhythm against a struggling Orioles squad.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Houston’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jackson Holliday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Collectively, Baltimore Orioles hitters have excelled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 6th-best in the game.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Houston Astros Insights
- Jason Alexander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jason Alexander encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Cam Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Houston Astros – 2H MoneylineThe Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 100 games (+21.23 Units / 19% ROI)
- Daniel Johnson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+175/-235)Daniel Johnson has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 38% ROI)