Official Lineup for Phillies vs Pirates – 7/21/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 21, 2024, for the third game of their series at PNC Park, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Phillies, boasting an impressive 62-36 record, are having a stellar season and are among the top contenders in the league. Conversely, the Pirates are having an average season with a 50-48 record but are looking to build on their momentum after a 4-1 victory over the Phillies yesterday.

Marco Gonzales, a left-handed pitcher, will take the mound for the Pirates. Despite his 2.45 ERA this season, Gonzales’s xFIP of 4.04 suggests he has been lucky and might be due for regression. He has a solid Win/Loss record of 1-0 in his four starts. In his last outing on July 12, Gonzales pitched well, going 5 innings and allowing just one earned run. However, projections indicate he may struggle, potentially allowing 2.8 earned runs in 4.5 innings.

The Phillies counter with right-hander Tyler Phillips, who has only one start this year, in which he pitched 6 innings with four earned runs. Phillips’s ERA stands at 4.50###102, but his xFIP of 2.40 suggests he’s been unlucky and may perform better moving forward. He is projected to pitch 5.1 innings today, allowing 3.0 earned runs.

Offensively, the Pirates rank poorly across the board, including 27th in overall offense, 26th in team batting average, and 21st in home runs. This lackluster performance contrasts sharply with the Phillies, who rank 3rd in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, and 6th in home runs. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .290 batting average and 18 home runs, while Bryce Harper has been the standout for the Phillies, hitting .299 with 22 home runs and a .978 OPS.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Phillies ranked 4th and the Pirates 8th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be pivotal in what is expected to be a closely contested game. Betting markets reflect this, with the Pirates’ moneyline at +100 and the Phillies’ at -120. Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also sees this as an evenly matched game, projecting a 50% win probability for both teams.

Given the Pirates’ recent win and Gonzales’s decent ERA, there might be value in betting on Pittsburgh today, despite their underdog status. With both teams projected to score over five runs, expect an exciting high-scoring affair at PNC Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Tyler Phillips in the 12th percentile among all starters in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Kyle Schwarber has strong power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Marco Gonzales struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Marco Gonzales – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Among all starting pitchers, Marco Gonzales’s fastball velocity of 88.7 mph grades out in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Josh Palacios has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 55 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 82 games (+19.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)