Official Lineup for Braves vs Twins – 8/27/2024

Atlanta Braves

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves face off in a compelling interleague matchup on August 27, 2024, at Target Field. Both teams are experiencing strong seasons, with the Twins holding a record of 72-59 and the Braves at 71-60. This game serves as the second in their series after the Twins took the first game and are looking to build momentum.

On the mound, the Twins will send out Simeon Woods Richard, whose advanced stats rank him as the 123rd best starting pitcher in MLB. He’s had an above-average season with a 3.69 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.34 suggests that he may have been fortunate thus far. Woods Richard projects to pitch only 4.8 innings on average and is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs today, which is concerning for Minnesota’s chances.

On the other side, Spencer Schwellenbach is poised to take the hill for Atlanta. Schwellenbach currently ranks as the 20th best starter in MLB, boasting an impressive 3.94 ERA and a favorable xFIP of 3.12, indicating he may be due for better outcomes. He projects to average 5.1 innings pitched and is likely to allow around 2.4 earned runs. This makes Schwellenbach a critical factor for the Braves, especially considering he has the potential to outperform Woods Richard.

Offensively, the Twins have the 6th best lineup in MLB, bolstered by Trevor Larnach’s recent surge, who has been their top hitter over the past week with a .412 batting average and 1.294 OPS. Conversely, the Braves rank 13th overall in offense, with Whit Merrifield leading their charge.

With both teams ranked in the top half of the league, this matchup promises to be close. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, setting the moneyline at -110 for both teams, making it an intriguing contest for fans and bettors alike. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations of a competitive affair.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Spencer Schwellenbach meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, notching a .405 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .056 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 114 games (+29.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+9.30 Units / 39% ROI)