Odds and Betting Trends for Tigers vs Astros – 10/2/24

Detroit Tigers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are set to host the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park on October 2, 2024, in a crucial American League Wild Card matchup. After a tough loss to the Tigers by a score of 3-1 just a day before, the Astros are looking to bounce back and make the most of their home-field advantage. Despite the setback, the Astros are still favored in this matchup, boasting strong credentials with their offense ranked 7th in the league and their bullpen sitting 2nd according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Taking the mound for the Astros is Hunter Brown, who is currently rated as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB, showing great consistency with an ERA of 3.49. Although projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest some challenges with hits and walks, Brown’s recent performance with eight strikeouts in his last outing on September 23 emphasizes his ability to deliver when it counts.

For the Tigers, Tyler Holton steps in as the underdog’s starter. Holton showcases an impressive 2.19 ERA, but his xFIP of 3.68 hints that he might have been a bit fortunate this season. His pitch projection of just 1.6 innings highlights his limitation in endurance, possibly putting extra pressure on Detroit’s 9th-ranked bullpen, despite their good overall ranking.

Houston’s offense is led by the standout Yordan Alvarez, boasting a .309 batting average for the season. On the other hand, Detroit leans on Riley Greene, who offers solid contributions with a .261 average and is supported by Spencer Torkelson’s hot streak, evidenced by a .267 average and 1.010 OPS over the last week.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tyler Holton – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts (-185/+145)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Tyler Holton encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Riley Greene has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 100.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tyler Holton – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts (-185/+145)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Hunter Brown’s 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 85th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Detroit (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 158 games (+17.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 78 games (+22.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)