Odds and Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Pirates – 8/4/24

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in the competitive landscape of the National League. Currently, the Pirates sit with a record of 56-54, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead at 59-52, having established themselves as an above-average squad this season. Both teams are coming off an intense matchup yesterday, where the Pirates secured a narrow 4-2 victory over the Diamondbacks.

In the spotlight today is Pirates’ right-hander Paul Skenes, who has proven to be an elite pitcher this year, holding an impressive 1.90 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 6-1. Additionally, Skenes ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His projections today indicate he will pitch an average of 6.0 innings while allowing roughly 2.0 earned runs, striking out about 6.6 batters on average.

Conversely, Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks has struggled to find his footing this season. Although he has an average ERA of 4.53, he has shown signs of bad luck with a 3.76 FIP, suggesting room for improvement as he takes the mound today. With Skenes on the other side, the Diamondbacks will need to capitalize on any opportunities to support their offense.

The Pirates are projected as the favorites for today’s game, with projections suggesting they could score around 4.83 runs, a favorable output against a Diamondbacks lineup that is currently the 5th best in MLB but faces a tough matchup against Skenes. For bettors, this could present an opportunity to back the Pirates, who have a solid chance to extend their winning streak against a struggling Diamondbacks squad.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  In his previous outing, Ryne Nelson turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Ketel Marte has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Because flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball batters, Paul Skenes and his 47.6% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today’s outing squaring off against 4 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In terms of his home runs, Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck this year. His 25.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Jared Triolo).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)
  Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.70 Units / 267% ROI)