Odds and Betting Trends for Blue Jays vs Giants – (7/10/24

Toronto Blue Jays

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants and the Toronto Blue Jays gear up for their second game of the series on July 10, 2024, at Oracle Park, both teams are navigating through challenging seasons. The Giants, with a 45-47 record, find themselves in the middle of the pack, while the Blue Jays, at 41-50, are struggling to find their footing.

The Giants secured a narrow 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays in the series opener on July 9, with Logan Webb set to take the mound for the home team. Webb, the #11 best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, is having a standout season with a 3.09 ERA and a 7-6 record over 19 starts. However, his 4.11 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this year. Webb’s ability to limit walks (5.6 BB%) and induce ground balls (58 GB%) could neutralize a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 28th in home runs and 26th in stolen bases.

Toronto counters with Chris Bassitt, who holds a 7-7 record and a solid 3.43 ERA across 18 starts. Bassitt’s 4.20 xFIP indicates some potential regression. In his last outing, he struggled, giving up 4 earned runs in 5 innings. Facing a Giants offense that ranks 14th in MLB in batting average but only 21st in home runs, Bassitt will need to be on point to keep San Francisco’s bats in check.

Offensively, the Giants will rely on the hot bat of Michael Conforto, who has posted a 1.025 OPS over the last week. On the other side, the Blue Jays’ Spencer Horwitz has been on a tear, hitting .444 with a 1.024 OPS over the same period.

The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 2nd by the advanced-stat Power Rankings, should give them an edge in the later innings against a Blue Jays bullpen that ranks 25th. With the current odds favoring the Giants at -160 and an implied win probability of 59%, Webb’s elite pitching and the bullpen’s strength make San Francisco a strong favorite in this matchup. The projections also favor the Giants, giving them a 58% chance to come out on top.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Chris Bassitt has used his four-seam fastball 6.1% less often this season (3.2%) than he did last year (9.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Daulton Varsho has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (1901 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (1952 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Patrick Bailey has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last year’s 88.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Heliot Ramos has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 90 games (+11.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)