Odds and Betting Tips for Twins vs Guardians – 9/18/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the Minnesota Twins on September 18, 2024, at Progressive Field in a crucial American League Central matchup. With the Guardians holding an 87-65 record, they are having a strong season and are vying for playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Twins are at 80-71, showcasing an above-average season as they seek to solidify their postseason spot. The game is the third in the series between the two teams, following a 4-1 victory by the Twins on September 17, which could give them a slight momentum boost heading into this contest.

The Guardians will send Tanner Bibee to the mound, who has been impressive with a 3.60 ERA and ranks as the 37th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Bibee, however, projects to struggle with allowing hits and walks today, despite having a good projection for earned runs and strikeouts. The opposing pitcher, Bailey Ober, ranks 39th among starters and carries a 3.90 ERA. His xERA of 3.21 suggests a potential for better performance going forward. Despite his high strikeout capability (26.3 K%), Ober might face challenges against the Guardians’ low strikeout offense.

Cleveland’s offense is relatively average, ranking 17th overall, but they shine in the stolen bases category, ranking 5th. Meanwhile, the Twins boast a well-rounded offense, ranking 11th in overall performance, complemented by a good ranking in batting average and home runs. However, their 29th ranking in stolen bases indicates a potential vulnerability.

From a betting perspective, the Guardians are slight favorites with a moneyline of -135, corresponding to an implied win probability of 55%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Cleveland a 56% chance of victory, suggesting a small edge over the Twins’ 45% implied probability. With a low game total set at 7.0 runs, expect a tight, competitive game that could have significant playoff implications.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.6% more often this year (60.9%) than he did last year (54.3%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Cleveland’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Over his last 3 games started, Tanner Bibee has suffered a significant drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2367 rpm over the entire season to 2316 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Over the last 14 days, Josh Naylor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Cleveland Guardians offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 51% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+18.60 Units / 133% ROI)