Odds and Betting Tips for Brewers vs Giants – 9/10/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on September 10, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Giants, currently sitting at 71-73, are trying to stay competitive in a challenging season, while the Brewers boast a solid 82-61 record, positioning them well in the playoff chase. Both teams are looking to gain momentum as they enter this series, especially after the Giants secured a narrow 7-6 victory against the San Diego Padres in their last game on September 8.

On the mound, the Giants will start Landen Roupp, a right-handed pitcher who has yet to find his footing as a starter this season, having made 19 appearances out of the bullpen. Roupp has a strong ERA of 3.41, but his xFIP of 4.19 suggests some luck has been involved. He projects to struggle against the Brewers’ patient offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks. This could be a significant advantage for Milwaukee, especially given Roupp’s high walk rate of 13.9%.

Aaron Civale, also a right-handed pitcher for the Brewers, has had a mixed season with a 5-8 record and an ERA of 4.62. However, his recent performance shows promise, as he pitched well in his last outing, allowing just 3 earned runs over 5 innings while striking out 7 batters. Civale’s ability to go deeper into games could be crucial, especially as he projects to pitch 5.1 innings today.

Offensively, the Giants rank 19th in MLB, while the Brewers’ lineup is significantly stronger, ranking 10th overall. The projections suggest that the Giants could score around 4.10 runs in this matchup, while the Brewers are expected to tally approximately 3.93 runs. With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they might still have a fighting chance if they can bridge the gap effectively. Given that the projections favor the Giants slightly over the betting markets, there could be some value in backing San Francisco in this matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.293) implies that Brice Turang has had bad variance on his side this year with his .256 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a unit rank 22nd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 7.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Landen Roupp to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Heliot Ramos has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 43 games (+23.70 Units / 55% ROI)