Odds and Betting Tips for Athletics vs Red Sox – (7/11/2024

Oakland Athletics

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Oakland Athletics at Fenway Park on July 11, 2024, the two teams find themselves on opposite ends of the standings. Boston, with a record of 50-41, is having an above-average season and vying for a playoff spot. Oakland, at 35-59, is struggling mightily this year and looks to play spoiler.

The Red Sox are coming off a series win and will look to complete a sweep in this third game of their matchup against the Athletics. In their last outing, Rafael Devers has been the standout for Boston, hitting .304 with a 1.168 OPS over the last week. On the other side, Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for Oakland, boasting a .474 batting average and a 1.314 OPS over his last six games.

Tanner Houck, Boston’s projected starter for the game, has been a key contributor on the mound. Sporting a 7-6 record with an excellent 2.68 ERA, Houck is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. While his peripheral indicators suggest some luck may be involved, he projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 6.6 batters, and walking just 1.4.

Oakland counters with Luis Medina, who has had a challenging season with a 4.37 ERA and a 2-3 record. Medina projects to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, with his low-strikeout rate (15.9%) potentially giving him a slight edge against a high-strikeout Red Sox offense. However, Boston’s offense, ranked 7th in MLB, may prove too much for Medina, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics.

The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. With Boston’s potent offense and Houck’s strong pitching, the Red Sox are the heavy favorites with a moneyline of -210, translating to a 65% implied win probability. Oakland, a substantial underdog at +180, will need a standout performance to pull off an upset.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Luis Medina – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Luis Medina’s high usage percentage of his fastball (56.4% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Lawrence Butler is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  In his last outing, Tanner Houck didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Rafael Devers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+8.95 Units / 63% ROI)